We are in the middle of the Dahe Fajr (the “Ten-Day Dawn”) in Iran.  On February 1, thirty-one years ago, Ayatollah Khomeini landed at Mehrabad Airport in Tehran.  Ten days later, the Shah’s government fell.  For these ten days Iran strings its streets with lights and joyfully makes ready to celebrate the founding of the Islamic Republic on February 11, which is this Thursday.

And indeed, everywhere you look, everybody’s getting ready for the holiday:

The Islamic Republic

On February 1, President Ahmadinejad announced that Iran will “deliver a telling blow” to the “arrogant global powers” on the 11^th. (more…)

The information coming out of Iran is raw, and sporadic.  Mainstream press coverage is simplistic. Be careful what, and how, you read.  Here’s what to do.

Why is it so confusing?

Both information and disinformation arrive in fragments and in waves. The fragmentation reflects myriad goings-on coupled with regime’s censorship and disruption of communications.  The wave-like nature of the raw feed reflects the ebb and flow of the protests: planning and then action, planning and then action.

Eye-witness accounts are first-hand, but partial.  Twitter and YouTube bring us breathless updates, along with warnings that some Twitter usernames have been co-opted by the regime and relay false information.  “Leaked” documents and the informant-of-the-day offer uncertain and conflicting information.

Who is involved and what’s at stake may be changing. In July, the issue was electoral irregularities.  Now, depending on what you read, the protesters are young and old, liberal and conservative, and the argument(s) are about which players will the levers of power within the Islamic Republic, or how the Islamic Republic should work, or whether there should be an Islamic Republic.

Then there are the regime’s atrocities. These are undeniable, and the impact of the images is visceral.

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