Short answer: nobody knows.

But given that the West has consistently underestimated — or misrepresented — the Iranian government’s intentions and capabilities, maybe we ought to be paying attention.  Especially since they’ve warned us about a stunning “punch” today.

iran

Farsi scholars disagree about the nuances of the translation. What kind of punch?  Real or “symbolic?” Is there an internal revolution underway? Here’s Farnaz Fassihi in The Wall Street Journal:

BEIRUT—Iranian authorities deployed in force across Tehran Wednesday to conduct last-minute security sweeps and warn residents to refrain from joining antigovernment protests planned for Thursday.

The government typically orchestrates large, carnival-like rallies and demonstrations to mark the anniversary of the Islamic Republic. For this year’s events on Feb. 11, the day marking the culmination of the annual celebrations, opposition leaders have called for protesters to demonstrate against the regime. That has set the stage for clashes between authorities and demonstrators, who have taken to the streets repeatedly to protest the outcome of presidential elections in June.

Or is this it? From the AP:

TEHRAN, Iran – President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad claimed Thursday that Iran has produced its first batch of uranium enriched to a higher level, saying his country will not be bullied by the West into curtailing its nuclear program a day after the U.S. imposed new sanctions.

Ahmadinejad reiterated to hundreds of thousands of cheering Iranians on the anniversary of the 1979 foundation of the Islamic republic that the country was now a “nuclear state,” an announcement he’s made before. He insisted that Iran had no intention of building nuclear weapons.

The United States and some of its allies accuse Tehran of using its civilian nuclear program as a cover to build nuclear weapons but Tehran denies the charge, saying the program is just geared toward generating electricity.

What are the Iranians up to? Your thoughts welcome here.